Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Learn how and when to remove this template message, "How many counties are in the United States? But theres a blue collar contingent too who feel like theyre being ignored, according to county Democratic Chairman Marty Martinez. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. Found an error on our site? Take the time to ponder and realize that this is no mean feat! Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). Election night is going to be information overload. We tried to pick counties that had a large enough population to matter some or if they just had a knack for picking that statewide winner. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. In 2008, Obama carried this county outside Detroit by 9 percentage points but that winning margin was cut in half in 2012 with Michigan native Mitt Romney leading the GOP ticket. Other counties to watch: Watch Atlanta and the suburbs. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: List of election bellwether counties in the United States. Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. The Tipping Points of the 2016 Election - The Atlantic Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud. From 1980 through 2016, there were19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Explore the pages of this site and the links to further reports. 2016 election critical counties: Vigo, Indiana | CNN Politics When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. The question is, how much did they get it wrong by? Like Jefferson (but slightly more populous), Arapahoe was once a GOP stronghold that voted for Obama twice. Or want to contribute to our open-source collection of articles and statistics? Arguably, it was 2016 and not 2020 when bellwether counties first showed signs of falling by the wayside, given their dramatic swing to the right in that election. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Most of the statistics in the meme are true but they are not proof of voter fraud or other supposed issues with the election. With each new section we relaxed the constraint, to include the most friendly Democrat voting counties in the country (based on the 2008 election). The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. What are the odds of getting 21 heads or 21 tails? It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. Ron Elving . There are numerous theories about why it happened in 2020. Do you know this baby? Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. 108,000 people. You can subscribe to our print edition, ad-free app or electronic newspaper replica here. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. "Mathematically impossible," wrote a user who shared it on Facebook. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. This is a fairly small county, but we couldn't resist the toll of this bellwether. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. This sizable Cincinnati suburb has reflected the statewide margin in the last two presidential elections. i.e. Nineteen of these counties continued their streak in 2016 by voting for Trump, but the remaining 16 counties ended their bellwether streak by voting for Hillary Clinton. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. It gets a lot more interesting. From 1980 through 2016, 19 of the nation's more than 3,000 counties voted for the eventual president in every election. Latest voter registration totals: Unaffiliated: 49,026Democrats: 40,563Republicans: 35,146. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. But there was only one county Clallam, Washington which voted Democrat. Trump, however, needs to drive up the score in Collin (Plano). "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Other counties to watch: Wake, in the heart of the Research Triangle, used to be considered a swing county. (i.e. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Trump needs to drive up the score in Cobb, which provided more votes than any other county for Mitt Romney in 2012. Free and open-source. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! They are not a statistical curiosity, but the perfect distillation or embodiment of the whole countrys sentiment. The divisions were everywhere. A switch county is our name for a county that happens to vote for the winning party whenever there is a change of parties, ignoring how they voted for the incumbent. Clinton wouldn't mind having a win in Harris (Houston and its suburbs of over one million voters), Nueces (Corpus Christi) and Tarrant Ft. Worth/Arlington). 2. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. Outstanding. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. . Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-45%. Florida (29 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. With such overwhelming Democrat support in 2008, one can only surmise that ALL these 25 counties would have switched back to the Democrat party in 2020. This suburban Denver county twice backed George W. Bush then twice supported Barack Obama. Increased political polarization is another reason why fewer counties are consistently indicative of presidential results in recent years. Their finger was so tightly on the pulse of America that they not only picked the winner each time, but managed to accurately flip parties four times in that period. First, itliststotal number of votes they received Obama at 69,000,000,Trump at 74,000,000 and Biden at 81,000,000. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP Their hopes are real. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. It's the wrong question. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. Relatively few counties across the nation switched party support in 2012, but Rockingham was one of them, flipping from Obama in 2008 to Romney. They're just facts about the vote. Salt Lake City elected its first lesbian mayor this year, and Obama actually won Salt Lake County by a few hundred votes in 2008. We looked at the most recent swing counties and determined how many of the strongest Democrat voting counties in 2008, swung back to the Democrat party in 2020. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? If Clinton can carry Henrico, it will help offset nearby Chesterfield County, the slightly larger and more Republican-oriented Richmond suburb. All rights reserved. Hillary Clinton (578) It provided the second highest vote totals of any county and a significant share for Democrats. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". Other counties to watch: Remarkably, Obama won every county in this state in 2008. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. 2020 Election (1210) Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. Jacksonvilles Duval County has been a reliable Republican performer over the years, though it nearly went for Obama in 2008 in large part due to high African-American turnout. What science tells us about the afterlife. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC Wilkes-Barres Luzerne County is traditionally Democratic territory in northeastern Pennsylvania but its also an aging, working-class county where Trumps message is resonating. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Here is a look at the bellwether counties for the 2020 presidential race. Watch Hampton City. By Randy Yeip and Stuart A. Thompson. Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. If they are tipping to Clinton, it's over. 2016 Election (1135) Sumter County, . The American Voter's Alliance provides a great national overview with many reports, videos and detailed legal submissions. A Changing America Faces A Stark Choice This Election. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-47% - 2008: Obama 55%-44%. In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. New Hampshire (4 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up. Jeff. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. (Sorry, not sorry.) Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. In this section we will introduce a new concept: The swing county. Unfortunately, Github (now a Microsoft company) terminated this website's account on 13 Jan 2021 for "spreading misinformation", a violation of their terms, although no specific examples were given. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. Traditional Republican eastern counties of Carroll, Belknap and Rockingham, home to Portsmouth, fell back to the GOP in 2012, but not by enough for Romney, who had a home in the state, to win. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Democrats Woodrow Wilson, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton and Grover Cleveland (twice) won elections while losing ground in the House, per The Atlantic. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Side note Could the Florida Keys tell us who wins? Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. Arapahoe County. University of Denver, 2. From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Have information that relates to fraud in this election? Concretely, a switch county would have voted for the following parties: (We ignore how they voted in 1996, 2004 and 2012 when the parties stayed the same.). It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. The matters that way on their minds are real. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. Bellwether counties in swing states show that the demographic gulf between the Democrats' more urban coalition and the Republicans' base of rural and blue collar whites is poised to grow ever . Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Until this year. Here are the concepts we have established so far: This is just the beginning. Bellwether counties are already extremely rare, but some bellwether counties are better than others at highlighting a change in sentiment. For that reason,Rogers M. Smith, a political scientistat the University of Pennsylvania, told Reutersthat "focusing on counties won as an indicator of the likely popular vote winner makes no sense whatsoever.". Driving up the margins in those places will be key for Clinton. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. The pattern has become clear between the last two presidential elections and governor's race early results from rural counties show Republicans up, but Northern Virginia counties, especially Fairfax, have more than made up the difference. hide caption. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. A county that voted for the winning party in 1992 (Democrat), 2000 (Republican), 2008 (Democrat) and 2016 (Republican), irrespective of how they voted at the other elections. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). 2023 BBC. What Can We Learn from Bellwether Counties in Swing States? Democrats also have to win big in Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Guilford (Greensboro), Durham and Buncombe (Asheville). While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Lets rank these counties from highest to lowest Democrat voting percentages in the 2008 election. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. November 8, 2016 9:29 AM ET. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. Dont simply gloss over this. Bellwether Counties Historical Performance 1984 to 2020 The Milwaukee suburb went for Obama by just 3 points in 2012, but went for George W. Bush in 2004 when Wisconsin was the closest state of that election, though it went for Democrat John Kerry. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Election-Integrity.info provides over 25 thoroughly-researched, scientifically-approached reports. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . No county more closely reflected Obama's wins in 2008 and 2012 than Monroe, home to Key West and the rest of the Keys. Some of the same messages that are going to work in Northeastern Ohio are maybe not going to work as well down here, said county GOP Chairman Alex Triantafilou. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election - NPR.org That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. 03:30. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. This well-educated, high-income and increasingly diverse D.C. exurb (Asians and Latinos togther make up a third of this county) went for Obama twice and roughly reflected the statewide margin. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. (See the DPV 08 column in the image below.) There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. President-elect Biden on Electoral College vote: Clear victory. More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. Have you looked at the results of these counties? In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). Eastern Iowa is often seen as Democratic turf -- the last 4 Democratic presidential nominees have won Scott County. A swing county is a county that voted correctly for the winning party at one election and then voted for the other winning party at the next election. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. "I said: 'I'm the chair of the Democratic Party,' and the gentleman looked at me and said: 'Oh, the enemy.'". Read about our approach to external linking. So, for our purposes, a swing county would have voted as follows: There are 80 such counties. (Needless to say that if the tables were reversed, we would hear no end of the significance of bellwether counties in the media.). Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. In 2020,Biden received81,281,888 votes andTrump received74,223,251 votes, according to a tally byUSA TODAY. But along with the states other urbanized counties, Forsyth has moved to the left, twice backing Barack Obama. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Republicans have a voter registration advantage here but in recent presidential elections, its had consistently tight margins: In 2012 Obama won it by less than 4,000 votes. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". ", "Bellwether Counties Nearly Wiped Out by 2020 Election", "Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=List_of_election_bellwether_counties_in_the_United_States&oldid=1125445752, This page was last edited on 4 December 2022, at 01:36. there are signs that the progress he made there in 2016 winning the county by about 1.5 percentage points after Obama carried it by 16 points . More than half of all Americans livein just 143 counties, per the U.S. Census Bureau. What's more, in this year's election voters in leading bellwether counties didn't just come out for Donald Trump marginally; they backed him in droves. (subject to censorship). 9 Battleground State Counties That Trump and Biden Need to Win - The Joe Biden (631) If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 51%-47% - 2008: Obama 53%-46%. These counties were geographically clustered in the Midwest and in the Northeast. Well, lets consider the percentage gap between the winning and losing party in these counties. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Just one Clallam County, Washington voted for President Joe Biden. Where Did All The Bellwether Counties Go? | FiveThirtyEight In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. It almost became religious.". Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. History suggests not: just two-thirds of historic bellwether counties. In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Their ability and sensitivity to dramatically switch parties in 2000, 2008 and 2016, is outstanding. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. The following 111 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in two elections since 1980: Allamakee County, Iowa, in 1992 and 2020 [3] Alamosa County, Colorado, in 2016 and 2020 [3] Baldwin County, Georgia, in 1980 and 2016 [3] Benzie County, Michigan, in 2012 and 2020 [3] Blue Earth County, Minnesota, in 1988 and 2004 [3] These counties' national bellwether status might not ring true in 2016, though, because Illinois is one of Obama's home states. And notably, the 16 counties that lost their bellwether status in 2016 are more racially diverse (median of 46 percent non-Hispanic white, compared to 89 percent) and more highly educated (median of 27 percent of adults 25 or older with a bachelors degree or higher, compared to 22 percent) than the 19 counties that maintained their bellwether status.
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